It’s a Housing-Market
Slowdown,
Not a Bust
Rising interest rates have cooled sales,
but unemployment remains low and the
economy is riding high
All things must pass. For five years now, the housing-market story has been a story
of strong demand and limited supply.
No w, demand has been abated by unrelenting price gains, higher mortgage rates
and a widespread sense that homes have become unaffordable, which is keeping
some would-be homebuyers on the sidelines. Thankfully, for mortgage originators
and the country as a whole, supply remains tight in most areas, so an outright housing bust isn’t expected.
What is the most likely scenario for 2019? What can originators expect? Sales may
decline by 3 to 6 percent, and home-price growth will be slower. National home
prices could still grow 2 to 4 percent next year, so long as the U.S. continues to have
a constrained housing supply and ample job opportunities.
By Ralph DeFranco
Global chief economist
Arch Capital Services Inc.
Departments
Articles
18 | From the Editor
Optimism can be found even in disconcerting times.
20 | Featured Top Originator
Guild Mortgage’s Jeffrey Hawks has already made a splash
as an originator in his young career.
22 | Q&A: Quicken Loans Mortgage Services
Senior Vice President David Schroeder explains how
Quicken Loans is pivoting from the refinance market
to the home-purchase market.
24 | News Roundup
Catch up on recent issues and trends in the
mortgage industry.
28 | DataDecoded
HELOCs and purchase mortgages will dominate in 2019.
30 | Spotlight: Georgia
Georgia’s economy is in peachy condition.
32 | Commercial Highlights
Check out what’s happening in this month’s
Scotsman Guide Commercial Edition.
154 | BackSpace
Lenders and appraisers square off over regulatory proposal.
Continued >>
Residential Edition
Volume 26: Issue 2
February 2019
Contents
37 | It’s a Housing-Market Slowdown,
Not a Bust
Rising interest rates have cooled sales,
but unemployment remains low and the
economy is riding high
Ralph DeFranco, Arch Capital Services Inc.
54 | Digital Reach Cuts Costs and
Attracts Borrowers
Mortgage companies can win market share through
third-party data and analytics
Jennifer Henry, Equifax Mortgage Services
57 | Learn the Art of Specialty Lending
Grow your business by providing borrowers with more
financing options that address their unique needs
Laura Brandao, American Financial Resources
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